The most recent report (report 156, June 24th) published by the World Health Organization indicates that more than 9 Millions of people have been globally confirmed as COVID-19 cases (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports).
Compared to one month ago (https://www.emigrantrailer.com/?p=2525), we register an increase of about 4 Millions of people, which means more than 63%! Most of them in American and African countries. However, this increase of cases is not accompanied by the same increase of deaths (about 34%), which is an indication that many countries are correctly applying all the countermeasure to reduce the negative and fatal effects of the virus.
Moreover, it is always worth to mention and underline that the severity of the situation in a country does not depend exclusively by the number of cases (which depend by how many test are done), but it is a combination of number of cases (absolute values), number of deaths (absolute values), fatality rate (deaths vs cases) and number of deaths per national population. See previous analysis and example between neighboring countries (https://www.emigrantrailer.com/?p=2695; https://www.emigrantrailer.com/?p=2778).
Following the approach in the last analysis at end of May, I will present eight charts that display the evolution of COVID-19 cases and deaths for several worldwide nations from mid-February 2020 till now. For each chart, a link directs you to the original size for a better view of the data.
In general, the average daily values refer to those calculated in the last four weeks, unless differently specified.
CHART 1 (Worldwide: cases > 500.000)
In this category there are only three nations: the United States, Brazil and the Russian Federation.
Looking at this chart, it is possible to observe the following:
- The rate of increase is higher for USA (≈23.000 cases/day) and Brazil (≈23.000 cases/day) compared to Russian Federation (≈8.500 cases/day);
- The general situation is USA is not really improving compared to May 2020;
CHART 2 (Worldwide: 100.000 < cases < 500.000)
Looking at the chart, there are several countries in this range of COVID-19 cases with the following highlights:
- India has a steep increase of cases (≈11.000 cases/day in the last month, but more than 15.000 cases/day in the last week) and, in few days, it will probably reach USA, Brazil and Russian Federation in the other category;
- Pakistan (neighbor country of India) has also a constant increase of cases (≈4.600 cases/day);
- Iran (neighbor country of Pakistan) shows significant increase (≈2.500 cases/day) since Mid-May, after a stable situation in April;
- South-American (Chile & Peru) and Central-American (Mexico) countries follow the negative trend of Brazil, but at lower rate: 4.000-5.000 cases/day;
- South Africa had a significant increase in the last weeks (≈3.000 cases/day in the last month, but more than 4.000 cases/day in the last days);
- European countries (Italy, France, Spain) and Canada have all dramatically reduced the fast increase of former month. Now, they register < 500 cases/day in the last week;
- Other European countries (UK, Germany and Turkey) have also improved. However, they still have between 500 and 1000 cases/day;
CHART 3 (Worldwide: 20.000 < cases < 100.000)
The situation in this category is not very homogeneous: there are countries with a relative stable situation and other countries with steep increase of cases which will probably bring them in the upper category in the next few days. In particular:
- China and Switzerland have a stable situation since several weeks with about 20 cases/day;
- Belgium (≈120 cases/day, Netherland (≈150 cases/day, Singapore (≈350 cases/day) and Portugal (≈310 cases/day) have still a high number of cases per day but with relatively good trend;
- Different situation for Sweden, which still register high number of cases (≈950 cases/day);
- Continuous increase of cases (average 500-600 cases/day) is registered in Ecuador, Philippines and Nigeria;
- Egypt (≈1.400 cases/day), Argentina (≈1.200 cases/day) Indonesia (≈800 cases/day) increased significantly the cases in the last weeks;
CHART 4 (Worldwide: cases < 20.000)
The data in this chart are also of interest, because some countries which had a stable situation until end of May, are nowadays showing new trends. Of course, the situation is still under control but it is worth to be highlighted. Namely:
- Japan (≈50 cases/day) and South Korea (45 cases/day) increased the daily situation compared to last period in May;
- Morocco also shows a different trend moving from about 60 cases/day to more than 250 cases per day in the last week;
- Algeria constantly increases by about 120 cases/day;
- Malaysia (≈35 cases/day) and Austria (≈30 cases/day) have marginally improved their situation;
- Australia, Thailand and Norway are instead still in a stable situation with < 15 cases/day;
CHART 5 (Worldwide: 10.000 < deaths < 125.000)
These are the highlights:
- The United States of America (USA) just reached >120.000 deaths, representing the 34% of the global number of deaths (≈475.000). In the last weeks, the situation slightly improved but the average deaths/day is still too high;
- Similar comment for Brazil, which continued the negative trend (≈1000 deaths/day);
- Since the beginning of June, India and Mexico show an increasing trend, which respectively brought to an average of about 360 deaths/day and 530 deaths/day;
- The European nations (Italy, Spain and France) improved and nowadays they show relatively low deaths/day (< 50);
- The United Kingdom (UK) also improved, but not yet enough (about 200 deaths/day);
CHART 6 (Worldwide: 5.000 < deaths < 10.000)
This category can be split into four group. Namely:
- After severe increase in April, slight improvements in May, Belgium and Germany have finally reached a better situation (< 20 deaths/day); Netherlands is even better with < 10 deaths/day;
- Since the beginning of June, Iran and Canada changed their previous trend. Specifically, Iran has deteriorated its status increasing from 55 to 80 deaths/day, while Canada has improved its status reducing from 110 to 65 deaths/day;
- Continuous negative trend is documented for the Russian Federation and Peru, both with about 160 deaths/day;
- Sweden (≈40 deaths/day) and Turkey (≈20 deaths/day) still show a constant increase;
CHART 7 (Worldwide: 500 < deaths < 5.000)
This is a very busy chart situation with completely different situations:
- China, Japan, Switzerland, Austria, and Portugal have < 5 deaths/day;
- Nigeria, Algeria, Philippines have a similar increasing trend with about 10 deaths/day; slightly worse is the situation in Argentina (≈20 deaths/day);
- Indonesia and Ecuador (both with ≈40 deaths/day), Egypt and South Africa (both with ≈55 deaths/day) have more than doubled the previous rate per day;
- Pakistan (90 deaths/day) and Chile (130 deaths/day) are expected to exceed 5000 deaths in the next days;
CHART 8 (Worldwide: deaths < 500)
This chart could be used as a summary related to those countries which managed well the critical situation. In particular, almost zero cases per day are documented:
- Since several weeks (mid of May or earlier) in Singapore, Thailand, Australia and Malaysia;
- Since few weeks (June) in South Korea, Norway and Morocco;
Additional and former analysis about COVID-19 can be found at this page of my website: https://www.emigrantrailer.com/?cat=34.
Kind Regards
Andrea De Filippo
